며칠 전 올린 지역 감염 수식에 대해

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백악관 브리핑에서 HHS도 모델 몇개 돌리는데 과학자 수학자들이 너무 비관적인 숫자를 들고와서 의사들은 격리완화전략으로 숫자를 낮출수 있다고 구체적인 숫자를 내놓기를 피하더라고요.

Then, you know the mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1% (we’ll discuss later the details). That means that, around 2/12, there were already around ~100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in death 17.3 days later).

Now, use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average). It’s 6.2. That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.

Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today. As many as the official cases in Italy and Iran combined.

If we look into the detail, we realize that 19 of these deaths were from one cluster, which might not have spread the virus widely. So if we consider those 19 deaths as one, the total deaths in the state is four. Updating the model with that number, we still get ~3,000 cases today.

“먼저 발병국가 데이타로(한중) 엑스포넨셜 비율로(제곱 ) 감염자수가 확산되는데, 사망율 1프로가정시,

바이러스 뭏어서 죽는 날까지 평균 17.3일, 두배로 감염자가 늘어나는 데 평균 6.2일의 데이타 적용하면 한사람이 죽었을때 지역내 800명 감염자수를 추정할수 있다

워싱턴에서 22명사망인데 계산하면 감염자수 약 16000명 추정

근데 19명이 한 군집에서 사망했기 때문에 (가까운거리),

19명사망을 1명 사망으로 치고 (22명 대신) 총 4명 사망으로 친다면 (16000이 아닌) 감염자수를 약3000명으로 추정할수도 있다”

어쨌든 이 계산법에 의하면 had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). 2의 3제곱이잖아요

평균 1명이 8명한테 옮기는 거.

1명이 1000명으로 확산하려면 2^10

1명이 1000000명 (백만)명으로 확산하려면 2^20

두배로 감염자수가 늘어나는데 약 6일 된다는 데이타 적용하면 

각각 60일, 120일 걸리는 거 같은데 이거 맞나요?  아무것도 안하고 퍼지게 뒀을때 이렇게?  

의견주세요. 사망률 팩터도 이야기해보면 좋겠습니다.